Subjective Assessment

Progress to AGI

Our honest, opinionated take on how close AI is to artificial general intelligence. Updated as the landscape evolves. Take it for what it is, one team's informed perspective.

Assessment FrameQualitative
Open

No single percentage can represent general intelligence

ReasoningUneven
PlanningBrittle
LearningLimited

This is not a scientific measurement. The labels below are a qualitative editorial assessment, not a benchmark or forecast. They are intended to frame questions about reliability, not settle a definition of AGI.

Capability Breakdown

Where AI stands today

Reasoning

Uneven

Strong on many well-defined problems, but novel reasoning and reliable verification remain inconsistent.

Planning

Brittle

Models can decompose goals, but long-horizon plans still drift when tools, people, and changing conditions enter the loop.

Learning

Limited

In-context adaptation is useful. Durable learning across sessions still depends on external memory, evaluation, and retraining systems.

Creativity

Capable

Models generate useful combinations across media, while originality, provenance, and judgment still require human scrutiny.

Adaptability

Variable

Transfer between domains is improving, but unexpected situations and recovery from errors remain difficult.

Autonomy

Gated

Current agents need permissions, checkpoints, and human review for consequential or extended workflows.

Key Milestones

How we got here

2017

Transformer architecture published

The foundation that made modern AI possible. Attention mechanisms changed everything.

2020

GPT-3 demonstrates few-shot learning

The first time a single model could handle wildly different tasks with just a prompt. A turning point.

2022

ChatGPT brings AI to the mainstream

Not a research breakthrough per se, but the moment the general public started paying attention.

2023

GPT-4 and multimodal capabilities

Vision, reasoning, and tool use in a single model. The gap between AI and human-level performance started narrowing visibly.

2024

Agentic AI and reasoning models emerge

Models that plan, use tools, and execute multi-step tasks. Still early, but the trajectory toward autonomous AI agents is clear.

2025

Public benchmark results continue to improve

Benchmark validity and real-world reliability remain contested, especially when tasks, tools, and operating conditions change.

Our Perspective

What AGI means to us

We define AGI as an AI system that can learn, reason, and perform at or above human level across any intellectual task, without needing task-specific training. That bar is high. Current systems are impressive but narrow.

One possibility is that broader intelligence emerges through an accumulation of capabilities rather than one breakthrough. Whether those capabilities become AGI remains uncertain.

In the meantime, we focus on reviewed workflows that can be evaluated against a concrete operating need, with explicit limits and human approval where consequences matter.

FAQ

Progress to AGI, Common Questions

Because honest, transparent opinions are more useful than either hype or dismissal. The AI industry needs more calibrated takes on what's actually happening. We share our perspective so people can compare notes and form their own views.
They are an internal editorial synthesis of published research and public evaluations. They are not a proprietary benchmark, and another team may reasonably use different labels.
We do not give a timeline prediction. Capabilities continue to change, but their rate, direction, and relationship to any definition of AGI remain uncertain.
There are real risks that deserve serious attention. Any consequential workflow should include safety, permission, and review controls, while longer-term risks remain part of an open and contested discussion.
We update this page when the editorial assessment materially changes. It is not maintained on a promised publication schedule.
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