Progress to AGI
Our honest, opinionated take on how close AI is to artificial general intelligence. Updated as the landscape evolves. Take it for what it is, one team's informed perspective.
No single percentage can represent general intelligence
This is not a scientific measurement. The labels below are a qualitative editorial assessment, not a benchmark or forecast. They are intended to frame questions about reliability, not settle a definition of AGI.
Where AI stands today
Reasoning
UnevenStrong on many well-defined problems, but novel reasoning and reliable verification remain inconsistent.
Planning
BrittleModels can decompose goals, but long-horizon plans still drift when tools, people, and changing conditions enter the loop.
Learning
LimitedIn-context adaptation is useful. Durable learning across sessions still depends on external memory, evaluation, and retraining systems.
Creativity
CapableModels generate useful combinations across media, while originality, provenance, and judgment still require human scrutiny.
Adaptability
VariableTransfer between domains is improving, but unexpected situations and recovery from errors remain difficult.
Autonomy
GatedCurrent agents need permissions, checkpoints, and human review for consequential or extended workflows.
How we got here
Transformer architecture published
The foundation that made modern AI possible. Attention mechanisms changed everything.
GPT-3 demonstrates few-shot learning
The first time a single model could handle wildly different tasks with just a prompt. A turning point.
ChatGPT brings AI to the mainstream
Not a research breakthrough per se, but the moment the general public started paying attention.
GPT-4 and multimodal capabilities
Vision, reasoning, and tool use in a single model. The gap between AI and human-level performance started narrowing visibly.
Agentic AI and reasoning models emerge
Models that plan, use tools, and execute multi-step tasks. Still early, but the trajectory toward autonomous AI agents is clear.
Public benchmark results continue to improve
Benchmark validity and real-world reliability remain contested, especially when tasks, tools, and operating conditions change.
What AGI means to us
We define AGI as an AI system that can learn, reason, and perform at or above human level across any intellectual task, without needing task-specific training. That bar is high. Current systems are impressive but narrow.
One possibility is that broader intelligence emerges through an accumulation of capabilities rather than one breakthrough. Whether those capabilities become AGI remains uncertain.
In the meantime, we focus on reviewed workflows that can be evaluated against a concrete operating need, with explicit limits and human approval where consequences matter.
Progress to AGI, Common Questions
Curious about where AI is heading?
Whether you're planning an AI strategy or just following the field, we're happy to share what we're seeing from the trenches.